Cardloan Teikinri

The historic decline of the Sri Lankan rupee against the US Dollar in 2022 marks a crisis. It fell 44.5% against the dollar by August 19, 2022. This drop came amid severe forex shortages and soaring inflation.

The US Dollar hit a high of Rs. 369 between March 7th and May 13th, 2022. This was a big jump from Rs. 304 on March 20th. By November 30th, the rupee had fallen to Rs. 329 against the dollar.

The rupee’s sharp drop of Rs 164.75 against the US Dollar has hurt the economy. It also fell against other major currencies during this time.

The rupee declined against the Indian rupee (40.5%), Euro (37.6%), and pound sterling (37.1%). It also dropped against the Japanese yen (34.3%). These drops made the economic crisis even worse.

Factors Contributing to the Sharp Depreciation of the Sri Lankan Rupee

The Sri Lankan Rupee plummeted against the US Dollar in 2022. Several factors led to this economic crisis. Forex market instability, rising import costs, and inflation put enormous pressure on the currency.

Economic Crisis and Forex Market Volatility

Sri Lanka’s economy faced numerous challenges before the 2022 crisis. The 2018 constitutional crisis and 2019 Easter Sunday attacks weakened the economy. COVID-19 in 2020 and 2021 further destabilized it.

The Rupee lost 40% of its value against the dollar in just three months. This happened from February 2022 onwards. Real GDP shrank by 7.1% year-on-year in 2022’s first three quarters.

Surge in Import Costs and Inflation

Inflation, measured by the Colombo CPI (CCPI), hit 70% in September 2022. It slowed to 54% by January 2023. Rising import costs and currency devaluation heavily burdened businesses and consumers.

The exchange rate settled at about 360 Rupee/Dollar in May 2022. This was under the Central Bank of Sri Lanka’s FX market guidance.

Year	Total Revenue	Tax Revenue	Total Expenditure and Net Lending	Overall Balance	Primary Balance
2022	2,012	1,751	4,473	-2,460	-895

US Dollar Strength and Currency Shortage

The strong US Dollar and low foreign currency reserves worsened the Rupee’s decline. Gross international reserves (GIR) were about $1.9 billion in December 2022.

The government’s decision to use up reserves before seeking IMF help fueled the economic crisis. This choice left the country with almost no reserves in early 2022.

Impact of the Rupee Depreciation on the Sri Lankan Economy

The Sri Lankan rupee’s sharp fall has shaken the country’s economy. It’s affected living costs, inflation, imports, and debt repayment. On June 20, the rupee hit Rs. 170.56 against the US dollar. This drop has worsened Sri Lanka’s economic troubles.

Rise in Cost of Living and Inflation

The weak rupee has made life costlier for Sri Lankans. In September 2022, inflation hit a record 69.8%. Food prices soared even higher, reaching 94.9%.

The National Consumer Price Index rose 58.9% in June 2022. Meanwhile, the Colombo Consumer Price Index jumped 60.8% in July 2022.

Challenges for Importers and Businesses

Sri Lankan importers and businesses face tough times. The weak rupee has made imports pricier. This hurts companies that rely on foreign goods and materials.

Consumers now pay more, while businesses earn less. Fuel price hikes have also increased the country’s oil import costs.

Strain on Foreign Debt Repayment

By March 2022, Sri Lanka’s government debt hit Rs. 21,696.6 billion. This was up from Rs. 17,589.4 billion in late 2021.

The falling rupee makes foreign debt repayment harder. The debt’s value in rupees has grown. This strains the country’s finances further. Sri Lanka’s external debt reached USD 37.5 billion in June 2024.

Sri Lankan Rupee Depreciates Sharply Against US Dollar in 2022

The Sri Lankan Rupee faced major challenges in 2022. It sharply depreciated against the US Dollar and other currencies. The Central Bank reported a 44.5% drop against the US Dollar by August 19, 2022.

This decline stemmed from the country’s economic crisis and forex market instability. The US Dollar’s overall strength also played a role.

Rupee Depreciation by 44.5% Against US Dollar in 2022

The Rupee hit an all-time low of 372.00 against the US Dollar in May 2022. This sharp fall had wide-reaching effects on Sri Lanka’s economy. It led to higher import costs, inflation, and strain on foreign debt repayment.

Businesses and individuals felt the impact too. Many Sri Lankans worried about the rising cost of living.

Cross Currency Exchange Rate Movements

The Rupee’s decline wasn’t limited to the US Dollar. It also fell against other major currencies during this time. The Central Bank reported drops against the Indian Rupee, Euro, Pound Sterling, and Japanese Yen.

These cross currency exchange rate movements further highlighted Sri Lanka’s economic struggles in 2022.

Currency	Depreciation (%)
US Dollar	44.5%
Indian Rupee	40.5%
Euro	37.6%
Pound Sterling	37.1%
Japanese Yen	34.3%

Conclusion

The Sri Lankan Rupee’s fall against the US Dollar in 2022 fueled the country’s economic crisis. Forex shortages, inflation, and currency movements caused this decline. This led to higher living costs and business challenges.

The crisis caused a 7.8% GDP drop in 2023. Hyperinflation hit 73% in September 2022. The government asked the IMF and World Bank for help to stabilize the economy.

Some positive signs emerged. Reserves grew to US$ 2.6 Billion in July 2023. The IMF approved a US$ 3 Billion bailout program. However, recovery will be slow and difficult.

Sri Lanka must focus on helping its most vulnerable citizens. It also needs to boost competitiveness and attract foreign investment. A well-planned approach is key to overcoming this crisis.

The Central Bank of Sri Lanka has raised key policy interest rates to fight inflation. This move aims to support economic recovery and align with IMF negotiations. The CBSL increased the SDFR and SLFR by 100 basis points each.

This rate hike addresses Sri Lanka’s high inflation, which peaked in September 2022. The economy shrank by 9.2% last year, with inflation hitting 50% in February. The central bank had already raised rates by 950 basis points in 2022.

The CBSL’s decision aligns with IMF staff recommendations. It’s a key step towards securing the $2.9 billion IMF bailout package. Sri Lanka is restructuring its debt before IMF funds can be released.

The country seeks approval under a special Lending Into Official Arrears policy. India and the Paris Club of creditors have offered their support in this process.

These changes aim to reduce the gap between policy and market interest rates. The CBSL expects single-digit inflation by late 2023. They also anticipate a continued decrease in market interest rates.

Stable monetary policies are crucial for Sri Lanka’s economic recovery. They support long-term growth and reinforce the importance of price stability. These measures are essential for sustained economic development in the country.

Central Bank Raises Interest Rates to Combat Soaring Inflation

Sri Lanka’s Central Bank has raised policy interest rates to tackle rising inflation. This action aligns with IMF negotiations and the Extended Fund Facility arrangement. The goal is to reduce the gap between policy and market interest rates.

This move aims to ease pressure on consumer spending and the overall economy. It’s a crucial step towards economic stability and growth.

Monetary Board Decision to Raise Policy Interest Rates

The Central Bank’s Monetary Board agreed with IMF staff to increase policy interest rates. The raise was smaller than initially planned during negotiations. This decision helps fulfill ‘prior actions’ needed for the IMF Extended Fund Facility arrangement.

Standing Deposit Facility Rate (SDFR) and Standing Lending Facility Rate (SLFR) Increased

The Monetary Board increased the Standing Deposit Facility Rate to 15.50%. They also raised the Standing Lending Facility Rate to 16.50%. These changes took effect from March 3, 2023.

This decision shows the Central Bank’s commitment to fighting inflation and stabilizing the economy. It’s a significant step towards financial stability.

Policy Rate	Previous Rate	New Rate (Effective 03 March 2023)
Standing Deposit Facility Rate (SDFR)	14.50%	15.50%
Standing Lending Facility Rate (SLFR)	15.50%	16.50%

Impact on Lending Rates and Cost of Borrowing

The policy interest rate increase will affect lending rates and borrowing costs in Sri Lanka. Higher rates may reduce consumer spending and investment as borrowing becomes pricier.

However, this measure is crucial to control inflation and prevent future economic instability. It’s a necessary step towards long-term financial health.

Reasons Behind the Interest Rate Hike

Sri Lanka raised interest rates to support its IMF-EFF arrangement. This move aims to boost economic stability and attract foreign exchange. It’s part of ongoing talks with the IMF to tackle economic challenges.

The Monetary Board expects this hike to close the gap between policy and market rates. As Sri Lanka restructures its debt, this gap should shrink further. This will create a more stable financial environment for growth.

Negotiations with the International Monetary Fund (IMF)

Sri Lanka is working closely with the IMF for economic recovery. The IMF’s support is crucial for addressing current challenges. Their involvement will guide economic reforms and debt restructuring for long-term stability.

Commitment to the IMF Extended Fund Facility (EFF) Arrangement

The interest rate hike shows Sri Lanka’s dedication to the IMF-EFF plan. This plan outlines steps for economic recovery. Following this arrangement aims to restore confidence and attract foreign investment.

Aim to Lower the Spread Between Policy Interest Rates and High Market Interest Rates

Raising interest rates should help align policy and market rates. This alignment is key for financial stability. As debt restructuring progresses, the rate spread should narrow further.

Conclusion

The Central Bank of Sri Lanka’s interest rate hike aims to ensure price and economic stability. This decision aligns with the IMF Extended Fund Facility (EFF) arrangement. It’s a crucial step towards normalizing the interest rate structure and combating inflation.

The rate increase is expected to quickly slow down inflation. Similar actions by central banks worldwide have shown positive results. The US Federal Reserve and European Central Bank have also raised rates to address rising prices.

Rising rates may challenge emerging economies’ financial stability and capital inflows. However, Sri Lanka remains committed to overcoming these obstacles. The country’s focus on stability aims to create a growth-friendly environment.

The recent surge in Sri Lanka’s agricultural exports shows the nation’s resilience. This growth potential supports the country’s economic recovery efforts.

Sri Lanka’s proactive approach to economic challenges is clear. The Central Bank’s actions and commitment to the IMF arrangement demonstrate this. These efforts position the country well for sustainable growth and a prosperous future.