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Sri Lanka Stocks Rally as ASPI Surges 15% in 2024

Sri Lanka Stocks Rally as ASPI Surges 15% in 2024

The Sri Lankan stock market bounced back strongly in early 2024. The All Share Price Index (ASPI) jumped by 15%. This surge shows growing investor trust in the country’s economic stability.

The Colombo Stock Exchange (CSE) saw busy trading days. Daily turnover ranged from Rs. 3.3 billion to Rs. 5.3 billion. Nine straight positive sessions highlighted the market’s strong performance.

Stock Market Recovers, ASPI Gains 15% in First Half of 2024

The blue-chip S&P SL20 index also grew, rising 2.41% to 2,794.15 points. Better-than-expected company earnings fueled this growth. The nation’s economy looks promising, with GDP growth predicted to hit 2-3% by year-end.

Offboard deals on specific stocks made up 15% of total turnover. These deals involved companies like Watawala Plantations and Commercial Bank of Ceylon. This shows strong investor interest in these firms.

The bull market proves Sri Lanka’s economic resilience. It’s attracting both local and foreign investors. As the rally continues, it’s expected to boost overall economic growth.

Stock Market Recovers, ASPI Gains 15% in First Half of 2024

The Sri Lankan stock market has shown impressive growth in 2024’s first half. The All-Share Price Index (ASPI) jumped 15%, while the S&P 20 rose 19%. Lower inflation rates and interest rates have boosted investor confidence.

Inflation Eases and Interest Rates Decline, Boosting Investor Confidence

Falling inflation and interest rates have fueled the stock market’s recovery. Investors now feel more optimistic about listed companies’ future. Quarterly interest costs for core companies have dropped significantly since 2020.

Sri Lanka stock market performance

Foreign Inflows Contribute to Market Rally

Foreign portfolio investment has driven the market rally. As the economy improves, foreign investors have become net buyers. Completing external debt restructuring is vital for market sentiment.

Sticking to the IMF reform program is crucial for sustained growth. Any deviation may create uncertainty and discourage foreign investor participation.

Key Sectors Like Capital Goods and Diversified Financials Lead the Surge

Capital Goods and Diversified Financials sectors are leading the market recovery. These companies have reported strong earnings growth and improved profitability. The banking sector is expected to see a re-rating.

Core earnings will be driven by loan growth amid positive GDP expectations. Non-Banking Financial Institutions should benefit from the current declining interest rate cycle.

Sector Allocation
Banks/NBFI 30%
Conglomerates 25%
Manufacturing 20%
Consumer 15%
Leisure 10%

Increased trading volume and investor participation have supported market growth. Small to mid-cap companies may outperform large caps due to falling fixed-income yields. CSE earnings are expected to grow by 15.0% in 2024.

The ASPI target is set at 13,800 levels by year-end. The Sri Lankan stock market is ready for further growth and recovery.

Factors Driving the Bull Market

Sri Lanka’s stock market bull run stems from improved economic outlook and investor sentiment. Successful debt restructuring talks led to an IMF agreement for a $2.90 billion Extended Fund Facility. This boosted investor confidence, showing the government’s commitment to economic reforms.

Government reforms and the IMF program have stabilized the macroeconomic environment. Inflation dropped to about 35% in April 2023 from over 70%. Market-based pricing for fuel and cooking gas has aided the economic turnaround.

Sri Lanka has made progress in overcoming its economic crisis. The tourism sector’s rebound has been a key factor in 2023’s economic growth.

Lower Inflation and Interest Rates Spark Multiple Expansion for Equities

Falling inflation and interest rates have fueled the Sri Lankan stock market bull run. Inflation is expected to hit single digits by Q3 2023. This has made investors more optimistic about the country’s economic future.

Lower interest rates have led to higher stock prices. Investors are willing to pay more due to improved earnings visibility. The Sri Lankan Rupee gained about 10% in February 2023 alone.

Successful Debt Restructuring Negotiations Improve Economic Outlook

Debt restructuring talks have been a game-changer for Sri Lanka’s economy. Foreign debt was 55% of total debt in early 2022. The IMF agreement and fiscal plans have greatly improved the economic outlook.

This has boosted various sectors, like Financial Services and Leisure. Maldivian Resorts and Colombo Hotels have performed well. The Group’s Bunkering business has seen higher profits from fuel prices and volumes.

Government Reforms and IMF Extended Fund Facility Program Support Recovery

Government reforms and the IMF program provide a strong base for Sri Lanka’s recovery. These measures address macroeconomic imbalances and set the stage for future growth. The Group reported 17% EBITDA growth to Rs.45.74 billion despite challenges.

The Supermarket business showed resilience with 45% EBITDA growth to Rs.7.46 billion. Ongoing reforms and fiscal discipline are expected to brighten economic prospects. This provides a solid foundation for the continuing bull market in Sri Lankan stocks.

Government Launches Debt Restructuring Talks with Creditors

Government Launches Debt Restructuring Talks with Creditors

Sri Lanka’s government has started crucial debt restructuring talks with international creditors. These negotiations aim to tackle the sovereign debt crisis and secure sustainable repayment terms. This process is vital to prevent default and ensure access to IMF support.

The country faces severe foreign exchange constraints amid recent economic troubles. Restructuring is a critical step towards debt sustainability and economic stability. It paves the way for future growth and recovery.

The government’s proactive approach shows commitment to finding a viable solution. Open dialogue seeks mutually beneficial outcomes for all parties involved. These efforts align with Sri Lanka’s fiscal recovery objectives.

The talks will lay groundwork for a comprehensive economic reform program. This program, supported by the IMF, aims to restore macroeconomic stability. It will also foster sustainable development in the long term.

The success of debt restructuring will shape Sri Lanka’s economic future. Favorable repayment terms could alleviate near-term debt obligations. This would create fiscal space for critical public spending and economic growth.

The collaborative approach reflects a shared understanding of debt sustainability’s importance. It sets Sri Lanka on a path towards lasting economic resilience and recovery.

Key Takeaways

  • Sri Lanka has reached restructuring agreements worth USD 10 billion with official creditors and China Exim Bank.
  • The agreements offer substantial debt relief, with up to 92% reduction in debt service payments under the IMF program.
  • Extended maturity periods and capital grace periods will alleviate near-term debt obligations and free up resources for public expenditures.
  • The restructuring process is expected to improve Sri Lanka’s credit ratings and attract foreign direct investment for critical infrastructure projects.
  • Successful debt restructuring will contribute to job creation, economic resilience, and Sri Lanka’s goal of becoming a debt-free advanced economy by 2048.

Sri Lanka Reaches Historic Debt Restructuring Agreements

Sri Lanka has reached landmark debt restructuring agreements with key creditors. These deals offer the nation substantial fiscal relief. The island nation declared its first-ever sovereign default in April 2022.

The Official Creditor Committee (OCC) agreed to restructure $5.8 billion of Sri Lanka’s external debt. The OCC includes 17 countries such as India and Paris Club members. China’s Export-Import Bank (EXIM) will restructure about $4 billion of debt.

Landmark Deals with Official Creditor Committee and China Exim Bank

These agreements mark a crucial step in Sri Lanka’s economic recovery efforts. They follow consultations with the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The IMF made external debt restructuring a condition for its $2.9 billion facility.

The OCC, formed in May 2023, covers about $5.9 billion of Sri Lanka’s debt. China, the largest bilateral lender, will restructure around $4.7 billion. These deals show international support for Sri Lanka’s economic revival.

Agreements Offer Substantial Debt Service Relief and Fiscal Breathing Room

The restructuring agreements provide Sri Lanka with much-needed fiscal space. This allows the government to fund essential services and development needs. The deals include extended maturity periods and reduced interest rates.

Commercial creditors agreed to a 28% reduction in International Sovereign Bonds’ principal. These bonds account for $12.5 billion of Sri Lanka’s external debt. The nation will enjoy a low 3.75% interest rate until 2028.

These measures will significantly reduce Sri Lanka’s foreign currency debt service costs. The costs will drop from 9.2% of GDP in 2022 to less than 4.5% on average between 2027 and 2032.

The agreements show Sri Lanka’s commitment to economic reforms and international engagement. The debt relief initiatives will support sustainable growth and development in Sri Lanka.

IMF’s Debt Sustainability Analysis Guides Restructuring Process

The IMF’s Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA) is key to Sri Lanka’s debt restructuring. The DSA assesses debt sustainability and categorizes countries into four risk levels. Sri Lanka has agreed to reforms and austerity measures as part of the IMF program.

Creditors Agree to Extend Maturity Periods, Initiate Capital Grace Periods, and Reduce Interest Rates

Sri Lanka’s creditors have agreed to extend maturities and reduce interest rates. These changes aim to provide relief on debt payments during the IMF program. Estimates suggest up to 92% relief on debt service payments.

These measures will free up resources for essential public spending. They will also support Sri Lanka’s fiscal consolidation efforts.

Measures Alleviate Near-Term Debt Service Obligations and Free Up Resources for Public Expenditures

The debt restructuring deals offer immediate relief and new financing opportunities. They could improve Sri Lanka’s credit ratings once commercial bondholder agreements are finalized.

Some economists have criticized the IMF’s DSA method. They suggest reforms to make it more effective and fair.

Sri Lanka’s economic recovery depends on successful implementation of the IMF program. The debt restructuring measures are crucial for long-term sustainability.

Sri Lanka’s Stock Market Emerges as a Leading Performer

Sri Lanka’s Stock Market Emerges as a Leading Performer

The Colombo Stock Exchange (CSE) has become a top-performing equity market in Asia. It showcases Sri Lanka’s economic strength and draws global investors. The CSE’s impressive returns and growth prospects make it a regional leader.

Sri Lanka's Stock Market Emerges as a Leading Performer in Asia with

As of October 25, 2024, the CSE’s All Share Price Index (ASPI) showed a 29.65% return in USD terms. This performance ranked it second best in Asia, according to Bloomberg.com.

Sri Lanka’s capital market is attracting both local and international investors. The country’s economy shows resilience and potential for growth through regional integration.

Colombo Stock Exchange Ranks Second Best in Asia

The Colombo Stock Exchange (CSE) has secured the second-best performing equity index in Asia. This achievement, as of October 25, 2024, showcases Sri Lanka’s thriving capital market. Both local and international investors find the CSE increasingly appealing.

Impressive Year-to-Date Return of 29.65% in USD

The CSE’s All Share Price Index (ASPI) boasts a 29.65% year-to-date return in USD. Bloomberg.com data reveals this exceptional performance. This success highlights the strength and potential of Sri Lanka’s stock market.

Resilience and Growing Appeal to Local and International Investors

The CSE has shown remarkable resilience despite global economic challenges. Its strong performance reflects investor confidence in the Sri Lankan market. The country’s stable economic growth averages 4.6% annually over the past decade.

Sri Lanka’s progress in achieving UN Millennium Development Goals has boosted investor interest. The CSE attracts foreign investment due to its diverse industries and robust financial sector. Strong corporate governance and transparency create an ideal environment for investors.

Strong Daily Average Turnover and Record-Breaking Performance

The Colombo Stock Exchange (CSE) is showing impressive daily turnover and performance. For the week ending October 25, 2024, daily average turnover hit Rs. 3.058 billion. This reflects strong market activity and investor trust.

The CSE saw two straight days with turnover over Rs. 4.7 billion. This happened on Thursday and Friday. It shows rising interest from local and global investors in Sri Lanka’s market.

ASPI Closes Near Year’s Record High

The All Share Price Index (ASPI) ended at 12,517.58 points. This was just one point shy of the year’s record high. It proves the market’s strength despite global economic issues.

The S&P SL20 index also gained, closing at 3,759.30 points. This index tracks the top 20 stocks on the CSE. Strong performance across indices shows the market’s overall health.

CSE’s record-breaking run highlights Sri Lanka’s appeal to investors. With high turnover days and ASPI near its peak, the market looks set for growth. This trend suggests stability and potential in the coming months.

Sri Lanka’s Stock Market Emerges as a Leading Performer in Asia with

Sri Lanka’s stock market shines as Asia’s top performer. The country’s strong economy and financial sector fuel this success. Smart economic policies have boosted regional growth and investment opportunities.

Resilient Economy and Robust Financial Sector

Sri Lanka’s economy drives its stock market’s success. The financial sector’s strength builds investor trust. The central bank’s smart policies and government reforms ensure economic stability.

Investor Confidence Boosted by Strong Corporate Governance

Sri Lanka’s commitment to good business practices attracts investors. Rules ensure companies are open and fair. This builds trust, leading to more stock market activity.

Diversified Industries Attract Foreign Investment Inflows

Sri Lanka’s varied economy draws foreign investors. Thriving sectors like tourism and IT catch global attention. The government’s friendly policies encourage more foreign investment.

This boosts the stock market’s energy. Investors see growth chances in many industries.

Central Bank Reduces Policy Rates to Spur Economic Growth

Central Bank Reduces Policy Rates to Spur Economic Growth

Sri Lanka’s Central Bank has lowered policy interest rates to record lows. This monetary policy change aims to boost borrowing and drive economic growth. The move comes amid a challenging global environment.

The central bank’s action follows similar rate cuts in the Philippines and Thailand. This shift is expected to inject liquidity into financial markets. It should also help businesses and households struggling with pandemic effects.

Policymakers believe lower interest rates’ benefits outweigh inflation risks. Cheaper borrowing could spur investment and economic activity. This may help offset weakening global demand’s impact.

Analysts welcome the rate cuts but urge further action. They say underlying structural issues need addressing. This includes improving productivity and attracting foreign investment.

Diversifying the country’s export base is also crucial. These steps could strengthen the economy’s foundation for long-term growth.

Key Takeaways

  • Central Bank of Sri Lanka reduces policy rates to historic lows to stimulate economic growth
  • Accommodative monetary policy stance aims to inject liquidity and encourage borrowing
  • Move follows similar rate cuts by central banks in the Philippines and Thailand
  • Lower interest rates expected to provide relief to businesses and households
  • Structural reforms still needed to address underlying economic challenges

Sri Lanka’s Central Bank Maintains Accommodative Monetary Policy Stance

Sri Lanka’s Central Bank is supporting economic growth amid global challenges. It has reduced policy interest rates and lowered the Statutory Reserve Ratio. These actions aim to boost lending and stimulate economic activity.

The Central Bank cut the Standard Deposit Facility Rate and Standard Lending Facility Rate by 450 basis points. It also lowered the Statutory Reserve Ratio by 200 basis points. These moves led to significantly reduced interest rates.

These actions mirror quantitative easing measures used by central banks worldwide. They aim to boost growth and maintain financial stability.

Policy Interest Rates Reduced to Historic Lows

In July 2020, the Central Bank cut policy interest rates to 4.50% and 5.50%. These are the lowest rates in Sri Lanka’s history. Lower lending rates should encourage borrowing and boost consumption.

Forecasts suggest Sri Lanka’s GDP growth could reach 6.5% from 2020 onwards. This growth is driven by the accommodative monetary policy and other supportive measures.

Statutory Reserve Ratio Lowered to Inject Liquidity

The Central Bank lowered the Statutory Reserve Ratio to 2.00% in June 2020. This injected about Rs. 115 billion of extra liquidity into the money market. The move aims to increase credit availability and support fund flow.

Increased liquidity and reduced lending rates should stimulate economic activity. These changes are expected to contribute to Sri Lanka’s growth objectives and boost various sectors.

Monetary Policy Tools Employed to Stimulate Economic Activity

Sri Lanka’s Central Bank uses various monetary policy measures to boost economic growth. These tools influence money supply, encourage lending, and support key economic sectors. They aim to maintain financial stability during challenging times.

Open market operations are a primary tool used by the Central Bank. They involve buying or selling government securities to manage market liquidity. The bank purchased Treasury bills to provide liquidity to the domestic money market.

In March 2020, the Central Bank bought Rs. 50 billion of Treasury bills. This financed the energy stabilization fund and met urgent government cash needs. These liquidity measures helped financial markets function smoothly and supported economic growth.

Targeted Lending Schemes Introduced for Key Sectors

The Central Bank has introduced targeted lending schemes for key economic sectors. These provide affordable credit to businesses and entrepreneurs. The aim is to help them invest, expand, and create jobs.

By directing credit to productive sectors, the bank promotes sustainable economic growth. This approach supports overall development and stimulates various industries.

Caps on Housing Loans to Encourage Borrowing

The Central Bank has implemented caps on housing loans to boost borrowing. This makes housing loans more accessible and affordable. The goal is to stimulate demand for housing and construction.

Increased activity in real estate can impact other industries positively. This contributes to overall economic growth and development in Sri Lanka.

These monetary policy tools work together to stimulate economic activity. They provide liquidity, encourage lending, and support key sectors. The Central Bank aims to create an environment where businesses can thrive and drive sustainable growth.

Central Bank Reduces Policy Rates to Spur Economic Growth in 2024

Sri Lanka’s Central Bank plans to maintain an accommodative monetary policy stance in 2024. They aim to reduce policy rates to boost economic growth. Their focus is on creating a favorable environment for investment and stabilizing financial markets.

The bank will monitor economic developments to ensure stability while supporting productive activity. They’re working to accelerate the nation’s post-crisis economic recovery.

Analysts predict the policy rate will reach 11.75% by 2024’s end. It’s expected to further decrease to 8.00% by 2025’s end. An additional 50 basis point cut is anticipated in October.

Inflation is projected to remain stable at 4.4% in 2024 and 5.1% in 2025. GDP growth forecasts are 5.3% for Q2 2024 and 5.4% for 2025.

The Central Bank has already taken steps to support economic recovery. They reduced policy interest rates by 100 basis points in July 2020. The Statutory Reserve Ratio was lowered by 200 basis points to 2.00% in June 2020.

These measures, along with targeted investments, show the bank’s commitment to growth. They’ve also purchased Treasury bills to support government cash requirements.

The Central Bank will continue using monetary policy tools to encourage investment. They aim to boost economic activity and support ongoing recovery efforts. Their goal is to create a strong, sustainable economic future for Sri Lanka.

Sri Lanka’s Foreign Reserves Rebound to $5.5 Billion by April 2024

Sri Lanka’s Foreign Reserves Rebound to $5.5 Billion by April 2024

Sri Lanka’s foreign reserves have bounced back to $5.5 billion by April 2024. This signals a positive trend for the nation’s economic stabilization efforts. The recovery in currency reserves is expected to boost the country’s financial stability.

Foreign Reserves Rebound to $5.5 Billion by April 2024

The World Bank and Asian Development Bank predict positive growth for Sri Lanka in 2024. They project a moderately optimistic outlook over the medium term. The current account may show a slight surplus.

This surplus is likely due to controlled import growth. The revival of tourism and remittances inflows also plays a key role. These factors are vital for strengthening foreign reserves and improving import coverage.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has supported Sri Lanka’s economic recovery. Their Extended Fund Facility has helped build up foreign reserves. The government’s debt restructuring efforts have also been crucial.

These actions have created a more stable financial environment. They have boosted confidence among investors and international partners.

Economic Recovery and Stabilization

Sri Lanka’s economy is showing signs of recovery. GDP growth is projected to turn positive in 2024. The World Bank forecasts a 2.2% growth rate for 2024.

This recovery is backed by the IMF’s $2.9 billion bailout package. The package aims to stabilize the economy and promote reforms.

Inflation Expected to Remain Benign in Medium Term

Inflation in Sri Lanka has dropped significantly. Year-on-year headline inflation fell to 1.3% in September 2023. It rose to 4.0% by the end of 2023 due to supply factors.

Core inflation also decreased, showing low demand pressures. Inflation may change due to new VAT rules in January 2024. However, it should stay low as demand remains weak.

Current Account Surplus Driven by Tourism and Remittances

Sri Lanka’s current account surplus is growing. This is due to strong tourism and remittance inflows. Tourism arrivals topped 700,000 in the first 14 weeks of 2024.

Remittances increased to $572 million in March 2024. These inflows are vital for the country’s balance of payments and foreign reserves.

Sri Lanka tourism and remittances

The boost in tourism and remittances helps offset the economic damage. The long crisis has hurt household finances and business activity. As the economy stabilizes, confidence is expected to grow.

Indicator 2023 2024 (Projected)
GDP Growth -3.5% 2.2%
Inflation (Year-end) 4.0% 4.5%
Tourism Arrivals (Jan-Mar) 270,000 700,000
Remittances (March) $475 million $572 million

Foreign Reserves Rebound to $5.5 Billion by April 2024

Sri Lanka’s official reserves have shown a remarkable recovery. They rose from $1.9 billion in late 2022 to $5.5 billion by April 2024. This excludes a swap facility from the People’s Bank of China.

The IMF Extended Fund Facility of $2.9 billion has played a key role. Approved in March 2023, it has greatly boosted the country’s reserve position.

Improved Balance of Payments Position

Sri Lanka faces a growing trade deficit due to rising import spending. However, net inflows from the services sector, especially tourism, have helped offset this.

A new e-visa system and the Pekoe Trail are set to boost tourism. These initiatives, backed by the EU and USAID, should improve the balance of payments.

IMF Extended Fund Facility Supporting Reserve Buildup

The IMF Extended Fund Facility has been crucial for Sri Lanka’s reserve buildup. The country’s commitment to economic reforms has secured this vital support.

Sri Lanka continues to work with the IMF and other partners. This collaboration is expected to strengthen its reserve position and enhance economic stability.

Debt Restructuring Efforts Paving Way for Financial Stability

Sri Lanka is negotiating debt restructuring with international bondholders. These talks are key to restoring debt sustainability and regaining market access.

The government is working hard to reach agreements with creditors. These efforts are creating a better environment for economic growth and investment.

Indicator Value
Foreign Reserves (April 2024) $5.5 billion
IMF Extended Fund Facility $2.9 billion
GDP Growth Forecast (2024) 2.6%

Conclusion

Sri Lanka’s economy is looking up. Foreign reserves are expected to reach $5.5 billion by April 2024. This signals a positive shift in the nation’s economic outlook.

The country’s GDP growth forecast for 2024 has been revised to 2.6%. This contributes to the South Asian subregion’s expansion. The subregion is projected to grow by 6.3% in 2024 and 6.5% in 2025.

However, risks remain. These include the need for deep debt restructuring and potential reform fatigue. Upcoming elections and the recent economic crisis also pose challenges.

These risks are high in Sri Lanka and other South Asian economies. They face high public debt, weak external reserves, and geopolitical tensions.

Implementing the IMF’s structural reform program is crucial. It will boost investor confidence and attract fresh capital inflows. This will support a stronger economic recovery in the medium term.

The Central Bank of Sri Lanka has kept the policy rate at 6 percent. Their medium-term inflation target is 5 percent. Private sector credit growth and lower non-performing loans show a stabilizing financial sector.

The current account deficit is narrowing. Foreign exchange reserves now cover over 4 months of projected imports. Sri Lanka’s economic prospects are improving, despite challenges on the road to recovery.